CMIP6-BASED ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL AND FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL TRENDS IN QUETTA VALLEY, PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study investigates historical and projected climate dynamics of temperature and rainfall in Quetta Valley, Pakistan—an arid region highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical analysis reveals a pronounced warming trend in both minimum and maximum temperatures, alongside a modest yet statistically significant decline in annual rainfall, further intensifying regional aridity. Future projections under the high-emission SSP585 scenario suggest continued warming, with maximum temperatures potentially rising by up to 8°C by 2100. Precipitation projections indicate irregular variations but generally point toward a drier climate compared to the baseline, particularly under SSP585. These findings underscore the increasing climatic fragility of Quetta Valley and highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management, agricultural practices, and sustainability planning.