CMIP6-BASED ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL AND FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL TRENDS IN QUETTA VALLEY, PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study analyzes historical and projected temperature and rainfall trends in Quetta Valley, Pakistan—an arid region highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical data show a clear warming trend in both minimum and maximum temperatures, alongside a slight but significant decline in annual rainfall, intensifying regional aridity. Under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, maximum temperatures could rise by up to 8°C by 2100, while precipitation patterns are projected to become more erratic and drier. These findings highlight the region’s growing climate fragility and the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water management, agriculture, and sustainability.